Video pass-through

Suppose that we have encoded a video file and found that we have encoded the audio wrongly. Is it possible to just re-encode the audio?

The assumption here is that it is faster to encode the audio alone. Indeed, this is the case.

Unfortunately, HandBrake does not allow us to encode only the audio stream. The workaround is to encode a very low-res video stream:

• Dimensions 32 x 32
• Ultrafast preset
• no-psy, psnr=0, ssim=0
• CRF 51
• No decomb, denoise filters

32 x 32 is the lowest possible dimensions. Any smaller and HandBrake would crash.

After the video is encoded, we use mkvmerge to replace the audio stream:

mkvmerge -o new.mkv \
  --track-order 0:1,1:2,0:3 \
  -A cur.mkv \
  -D new_audio.mkv

The track order assumes the tracks are in the order of video, audio, subtitle. We specify it explicitly because we want to keep the order the same.

-A means no audio. -D means no video.

Converting camera videos

My camera captures video at 1280x720, 29.97 fps at an astonishing bitrate of 8.9 Mbps — around 1 MB/s! (Encoded with MPEG-4.)

The audio is very weak, only 64 kbps, 24 kHz, mono. (Encoded with AAC.)

I will transcode the video to 854x480 / CRF 20, audio to 32 kbps / 22.05 kHz / mono for sharing purposes.

The smaller video file is just 44.5% of the original even before applying any additional compression. It is around 20% of the original size when encoded with H.264 at CRF 20.

That is pretty good.

I will still keep the original video file, of course.

My video resolutions

I started doing some video transcoding recently. As it is very slow, it is important to do it right the first time. (It took a while to get the parameters right, though!)

I have settled on these video resolutions:

Video is always encoded using H.264. Audio is always encoded using AAC instead of MP3 because of its higher efficiency at low bitrates. Every bit counts at 64 kbps!

The other encoding parameters are the same, except for cropping and subtitles.

240p is for low-bandwidth and portable devices. We are constrained by space here, so size is more important than quality. For example, we want to fit an entire series in 2-4 GB.

360p is to retain a little more details when the video is scaled up on playback.

480p is for transcoding 720p or 1080p videos so that they can be played on older PCs and still look good (DVD quality). I used to download the 480p version separately. In the future, I plan to transcode it myself.

96 kbps is sufficient for dialog-oriented shows. If a show is heavy on music, I will use 128 kbps or 160 kbps.

I will also use 480p for DVDs where size is more important than quality. If I were to throw the DVD source away, I would use CRF 15, 192 kbps, 48 kHz instead.

720p is for transcoding 10-bit 720p and 8/10-bit 1080p videos. These are still very bandwidth and CPU intensive. I can't play them on several of my devices. I also can't stream a 1080p video reliably over my 150 Mbps wireless network.

Weight-based analysis for LEGO sets

Weight distribution of the four Winter Village sets:

Another way to look at them:

Data is from Bricklink.

The Toy Shop is supposed to have better value than Bakery, but looks not.

The price/part looks reasonable for Post Office, but it has mainly small parts, so the price/weight is very bad.

The Cottage has a low price/part, but most people say it is not valid due to its small pieces. However, it has the lowest price/weight so far, so it is actually worth it.

sh and space just don't get along

This fails to work on sh:

fname="file with space.txt"
param="-file $fname"
prog $param

The intent is this:

prog -file "$fname"

But I want to make -file a variable because it is optional.

The obvious workaround doesn't work:

fname="file with space.txt"
param="-file \"$fname\""
prog $param

As far as I know, there is no way to make it work (without mucking with IFS).

The only way is to use bash. The solution:

fname="file with space.txt"
param=(-file "$fname")
prog "${param[@]}"

We are using an array and using the "$@" method to expand the variables with quoting. "${param[@]}" is expanded to:

prog "-file" "$fname"

QED.

Ubuntu 12.04 SSH login lag

Ever since I upgraded from Ubuntu 10.04 to 12.04, I have encountered a lag when logging in.

After I entered the user name, it takes about 3s before the password prompt is shown.

The reason is that SSH is trying to do a reverse name lookup (IP address to hostname). And it takes a while.

Edit /etc/nsswitch.conf.

Remove mdns4 from this line:

hosts:          files mdns4_minimal [NOTFOUND=return] dns mdns4

Result: instant password prompt.

There is no need to restart any service.

HDB stats you don't see everyday

HDB resale price distribution for Woodlands in June 2013.

The price doesn't fit into a normal distribution.

There is a "wall of resistance" as prices increase. And a small number of flats command a premium.

Unpublished HDB stats

Cheapest and most expensive HDB resale flats for the month of June.

The Grand Mission

Mission: to buy the Grand Emporium.

2,182 pieces. $339.90. RRP US$149.99.

Right now, it is possible to buy this on eBay SG for S$268. That's 21% off the Singapore RRP.

However, I hope to do better than that.

According to CamelCamelCamel — an Amazon Price Tracker website — the cheapest the Grand Emporium was available was US$125.55 on Amazon US. However, it rarely goes on sale. And Amazon US doesn't ship to Singapore anyway.

(Don't ask why CCC is named CCC. Nobody knows.)

But Amazon France ships to Singapore. Over there, the Grand Emporium currently lists at EUR130.

The final price works out to be EUR150.49 (EUR130 - 16.5% tax + EUR41.79 shipping). That converts to S$248.18 (27% off).

But CCC says the cheapest was EUR110.49. That would only work out to be EUR135.15, or S$223 (34.4% off).

Mission: to strike when the time is right.

Garden in Autumn

243 pieces. RRP S$79.90 (US$29.99).

I have no idea what scene this is in Lord of the Rings, but it sure looks like a wonderful garden scene in the autumn.

It looks a bit small, though. It is tempting to buy a few more sets to make the scene to look more complete. Unfortunately, like other LOTR sets, the price of this set is outrageous locally.

I may sell off the minifigs as I have no interest in them.

Return of the Village

1,990 pieces. RRP US$249.99.

The new big Star Wars playset, originally rumored to replace US$399.99 Death Star playset (10188), but now looks not.

Although this is a Star Wars set, it does not look out of place in the real world. It looks like a holiday resort among the trees. :-D

PHP 5.5.0 and the MySQL extension

PHP 5.5.0 was released on 20th June. It finally deprecated the original MySQL extension which was available since PHP 4.0. It has been recommended to use the MySQLi extension with PHP 5.0 (the 'i' stands for improved), but it was still easier to find sample code for the original MySQL extension. Old code die hard.

(Note: PHP 5.0 has been available since July 2004.)

Well, now they have to take it more seriously. Being deprecated is the first step to it being removed.

Because I used sample codes as my starting point, I also started with the original MySQL extension. It worked and it has one nice property: a global database instance, so you don't have to pass the database instance into all your functions.

But I did decide to switch to MySQLi at some point. It has dual interfaces: a procedural interface and an OO interface.

It is relatively easy to port code to the MySQLi procedural interface. Mostly, the function prefix changes from mysql_ to mysqli_. That's it. But I believe the OO interface is the way to go. It certainly fits into PHP 5's new OO paradigm.

Anyway, this does not affect me now. I have decided to ditch MySQL for SQLite3. :-)

LED vs low-energy light bulb

I bought a lamp at IKEA recently. I had a choice of two dim bulbs:

• LEDARE 4.3W LED bulb of 200 lm brightness, 0.2s to full brightness; at S$15.90
• SPARSAM 7W low-energy bulb of 315 lm brightness, 60s to full brightness; at S$8.90 a pair

Each low-energy bulb is only $4.45, but uses 2.7W more power. How long will it take the LED bulb to break even?

Let's see.

The current electricity tariff is $0.2670/kWh.

At 2.7W, it takes 15.43 days running 24/7 to cost $0.2670.

The price difference for the two bulbs is $11.45.

Thus, It takes 661.7 days (1.8 years) for the LED bulb to break even. ($11.45 / $0.2670 * 15.43)

But that's assuming you use it 24/7. If you only use it 8 hours a day, it takes almost 5.5 years!

Conclusion: LED bulb is not cost-effective.

Express, faster than you know it

I finally managed to advantage of the Amazon free shipping offer. I had six items on my "waiting list" :-P, but one of them didn't qualify, so it took a while to find a replacement item.

For some reason, Amazon split my orders into three packages: one by express and two by slow boat. Normally, we need to pay through our nose for express delivery. Amazon is very nice to auto-upgrade for me.

Time to deliver: three days by express. Slow boat? One month.

It looks like Amazon uses courier delivery these days. They require signed delivery. There must be too many fraudsters claiming non-delivery.

Hiding from No Such Agency

It is impossible to hide.

Should we try to minimize our footprints? I thought about it, but decided it is a bad idea.

We are bound to leave footprints and each of them will be significant.

Rather, I'll take the opposite approach: generate so much junk that it is impossible to tell which is real and which is fake.

Amazon will eat local retailers for breakfast

This is available locally for S$34.90. If we wait until the usual 20% sale, we can get it at S$27.92.

It is available on Amazon for US$17. It is not worth it after adding shipping.

But guess what, from this June onwards, Amazon is offering free shipping to Singapore for purchases above US$125!

It works out to be S$21.59 for this set. $6 cheaper and delivery to doorstep?

Free shipping is a game changer. Local retailers are in a world of hurt.

Another profession overtaken by times

Sign of the times. As more people have digital cameras (read: handphones) at their fingertips, a news agency can get digital images of an event instantly. There is no need to fly both the reporter and photographer to it.

There is no need to be sad. The past is the past and it is not coming back.

Online clampdown, or not?

From June 1, websites that regularly report Singapore news and have significant reach will require individual licenses to operate:

• If they report an average of at least one article per week on Singapore’s news and current affairs over a period of two months
• Have at least 50,000 unique visitors from Singapore each month over a period of two months. The individual licenses have to be renewed every year.

The killer: under the new framework, these sites must also put up a performance bond of $50,000, similar to that required for niche TV broadcasters.

It is obvious the Government wants to have control over the media. They don't expect individual bloggers or wannabe websites to really cough up $50k.

Will this be effective?

Absolutely not:

• Create an umbrella of unrelated websites
• When one hits the quota, freeze it and direct visitors to the next website

Since the rules only kick in if the website reports at least one article per week, then we need just 8 websites if we restrict ourselves to one article per day.

Basically, this move exhibits the typical straight-laced Singaporean one-dimensional thinking. On the other hand, some Singaporeans are very creative when it comes to circumventing rules. Exhibit A: the car dealers and the 50% loan.

On my part, I'm trying very hard to undo the years of brainwashing. :lol:

The Next Gen consoles

Sony has announced the new PS4 architecture last month, and Microsoft has just revealed its XBox One.

Both use the 64-bit 8-core AMD Jaguar x86 CPU at 1.6 GHz. This is actually a pretty low-end processor, designed for power efficiency than raw performance. Each core is only dual-issue OOO (Out-Of-Order).

But it's fine, because consoles don't really need much CPU power. The GPU is much more important. It's over there that you will see the sheer number of cores, the memory and the bandwidth. Those are what count.

Both consoles are very different from their predecessors, and for the first time, both are not backward-compatible.

I find it interesting that both companies chose to use a x86 CPU instead of say, the ARM Cortex A15. I suspect it is to reduce the porting effort from PC games.

Already, I'm wondering how these consoles are secured against hackers. PS3 and XBox 360 did a good job. Will PS4 and XBox One continue to be secure? I await eagerly.

Pay Amazon in your own currency!

Amazon now allows you to pay in your own currency! This is great, because you know exactly how much you are paying in your currency.

The first thing I did was to check if the exchange rate was competitive.

Amazon wanted S$1.30 for US$1. My bank's rate was S$1.23 to US$1 on that day.

Based on past experience, I know my bank charges a little more for credit-card purchases, but S$1.30 to US$1 seems rather high. I opted to pay in US$.

When I got the bill from my bank, the exchange rate was S$1.27 to US$1. It looks like it is still better to let the bank do the currency conversion.

Amazon delivery service

I got an SMS "AMAZON.COM Order 789-1234567-7654321 is due to arrive. If you wish to re-route, please visit https://asia-b2c.com/p=ABCDEFGHIJ".

My first thought was that it was a spam SMS.

But I do have an Amazon parcel on the way, so I wondered how the spammer knew. Or was it a lucky guess?

Curious, I went to the website. Certificate error. Ha! High chance of phishing.

It asked me for a postal code. I randomly entered one. It said 'No such match'. Hmm. Looks like it knows what's valid and what's not.

I then went to my Amazon Orders page and the order number matched! Interestingly, it allowed me to see the shipment tracking.

It has indeed just touched down to Changi Airport.

I'm amazed.

From what I read on the forums, the tracking is only pseudo-correct. They will auto-create entries at the estimated time of arrival even if the parcel hasn't past that station.

I waited until 1:30pm, but the receptionist still did not call me, so I went to look for her. No parcel for me, she said. I told her it was indicated as 'delivered'. She then checked the system. Oh, it's in the mail room.

Mission accomplished!

3D photos!

Lego is not the only product in danger from 3D printers. The market for hobbyist model figures, especially for rare or vintage ones, may also shrink.

Can't afford or find the real one? Print it!

This got me thinking. If we can print a model figure, why not print real people? And if we do that, why not print a 3D scene to go along?

That could be how photographs look like in the future: as a 3D scene.

The writing on the wall for Lego

I'm sure somewhere deep in The Lego Group (TLG), they are evaluating the impact of 3D printers to their core product, Lego.

We can print our own bricks. Fancy a rare piece or minifig? Print it!

But why stop there? We can go one step further and design our own brick system.

Or, we might as well just print the finished model directly.

3D printing is still costly. It will takes years, but one day it will be feasible. And when that day come, we will look at Lego bricks the way we look at photographic film today — king of the hill for its time, but obsoleted by new technology.

On the edge of a revolution

Cube 3D Printer from 3D Systems

The Cube 3D Printer goes retail at US$1,299.99.

I leave it to your imagination what you can do with it.

IMO, consumer-class 3D printing is revolutionary.

Let me ask: would you like to have a gun? It is illegal in many countries. And the US is trying to ban it, despite the right to "bare arms" in the Second Amendment to the US Constitution.

Why does the US Constitution explicitly allow guns? Because their country is founded by guns.

With this printer, you regain your "God-given" right to own whatever tools you like, regardless what your Government think.

Of course, most uses are more mundane and ordinary. Instead of printing full-page photos to hang on your walls, it will be trendy to "print" your own models to decorate your home.

HDB resale price in April

Price includes COV.

The cheapest resale 3-room flat costs $275k? Wow.

The median price is more interesting. It means half the flats are more expensive than this.

Winds of Change

I needed to cast two votes (state and federal level). I casted one of them wrongly.

Which one? That's a good question. :-D

Free travel, wooh wooh!

Well done! LTA has done something that everyone has talked about, but nobody has ever believe that it will do: free MRT travel.

Specifically, commuters exiting the 16 MRT stations in the city area before 7:45am (on normal weekdays) will get free travel. They must not originate from one of these stations, though.

Commuters exiting before 8am will get $0.50 discount!

The rationale? To preempt the city stations from over-capacity.

LTA released this nice table showing the total number of commuters exiting the city stations on weekdays:

Now it is clear why LTA is trying to shift the load to before 7:45am.

The takeaway

Free travel? Who would believe that the money-minded PAP would go for it? I was thinking at most 50% off.

This is definitely not your grandfather's LTA.

I can see that the PAP has realized that it needs to take drastic actions to remedy some of its mistakes.

The 40% downpayment for buying cars was also a huge shock.

On another front, the Malaysian has also taken baby steps to deflate the housing bubble. That one is tough.

City Corner rehash!

TLG has rehashed the City Corner after a mere 4 years.

City Corner (2009)

Product Shot

483 pieces, RRP US$59.99.

Town Square (2013)

Product Shot

914 pieces.

The RRP is not known yet, but it should be US$90-100 on the piece count. That makes it pretty expensive.

Rehash: the bike shop, the pizza shop and the bus. The bus looks similar, just red instead of yellow. The two buildings do look better — more modern and upscale.

But why are the crane or road sweeper bundled in the set? They don't seem to belong. The 150-200 pieces that make up the crane could have been put to better use.

It is partially rehashes like this that I don't get multiple copies of the same set to populate my town. I'll rather wait — patiently — for rehashes to get a variety of buildings.

Now, if TLG could just rehash the City House. :lol:

Typical "sure-to-appreciate" Lego sets

Rule-of-thumb:

• Large architectural sets
• Modular buildings
• Pirate ships
• Sculptures
• Selected licensed sets
• Sets with rare parts or minifigs
• Star Wars
• Top-of-the-line sets
• Trains
• Very selected City sets

These worked pretty well in the past.

However, since everyone knows these are the most profitable sets to resell, they use the same strategy and hoard these sets.

Thus, these sets will be oversupplied in the after-market and they will not perform like past sets.

Small vs large sets

As a rule, small-time resellers prefer bigger sets as it saves time and work.

Big-time resellers also go for the low-end of the market where the net profit can be $10 or less. They make it up on volume.

The Lego Group strikes back

Previously, I mentioned that The Lego Group (TLG) has wised up and extends shelf-life of popular sets.

I'm going to mention a more scary possibility — for resellers, anyway.

Since 2007 or so, TLG realized that retired sets appreciate, some significantly, in the aftermarket. TLG was leaving a lot of profit on the table.

As a result, they had to come up with a strategy.

The first thing TLG did was to extend the shelf-life of popular sets. This made the resellers' life harder. They basically had to wait longer, but once the set retired, they could still make money.

But TLG has one killer move up its sleeve.

In one of their behind-the-scene videos, they said they could configure production lines quickly to meet demand for certain sets.

I put two-and-two together and come up with an answer: they will release a popular set for an infinite timeframe!

This is doable because the MISB aftermarket is pretty thin. TLG just need to produce, say, 5,000 units of one set over 5 days and that can last for 3 months.

Two sets come to mind immediately: the US$399.99 Death Star (10188) and the next Modular Building to go, the US$149.99 Fire Brigade (10197).

These two sets are obvious "winners" based on their predecessors' aftermarket performance, so resellers stockpile them by the boatload, especially since they are due for retirement any time now. But they stubbornly remain in stock even after selling out a few times.

I predict that when the Death Star finally retires, there will be another Death Star to replace it! The current set will have no chance to appreciate.

I'm not sure what will happen for the Fire Brigade [FB], though. Right now, there are four other Modular Buildings to choose from: the Grand Emporium [GE] (10211), the Pet Shop (10218), the Town Hall (10224) and the Palace Cinema (10232).

Right now, it is speculated that GE will retire before FB. People are also betting that FB will be become more valuable if a Modular Police Station is released.

But I bet that TLG will keep all the Modular Buildings available. It's a reseller's nightmare!

Is Lego still a good investment?

I'm going to answer that upfront. If you are going to start today, my answer is no.

The reasons are simple:

• There is now tremendous speculation for retired sets
• The Lego Group (TLG) has wised up and extends shelf-life of popular sets
• People have also wised up and try to get sets before they retire!
• Newer sets are often better and more desirable

If you have sets before 2009, then yes, it is still profitable. You only need to be aware of the re-issue risk.

There were hoarders before then, but they weren't so ubiquitous.

It reached a tipping point in 2009. Many normal collectors caught onto the potential gains and started to hoard sets. At the minimum, they buy 3-10 copies. But once in a while, you hear of people buying 30-50 copies (of selected sets)!

Some conditions for rapid price appreciation:

• retired before a "full run"
• became popular after EOL
• sufficiently high RRP that limits initial sales (and hence after-market inventory)

The problem after 2009 is that there is plentiful supply of "sure-to-appreciate" sets, hence that limits the price appreciation of those sets!

As I mentioned, TLG is keeping popular sets available longer. Don't bet on Fire Brigade to rise like Cafe Corner. It has been out for 3.5 years, which means two things, (i) hoarders have their hands full of it, (ii) everyone who wants one has one.

In the next 2-4 years, it will become obvious that reselling Lego for a 200% profit isn't the piece of cake it used to be. The aftermarket may dip slightly as people dump their hoards. But don't expect a bargain. I expect the price to be around 80-150% RRP.

The best Lego investments

Remember I said a good rule-of-thumb is to double the RRP in 1-2 years time? Ladies and gentlemen, let me present the honours roll:

You can easily make 6-10x the RRP.

MISB vintage sets are expensive due to their scarcity. Airport Shuttle and Black Knight's Castle are probably the top two. If you are less fussy, you should be able to get a complete used vintage set for 1-2x RRP.

As for the newer sets, there are reasons why they command such high prices and these prices may not be replicable anymore.

Is Lego a good investment?

By investment, I mean keeping the Lego sets MISB (Mint-In-Sealed-Box) and selling them a few years later.

There are a few reasons why this can be done:

• Lego sets usually have a shelf-life of 2 years and once retired, is almost never re-released again. AFAIK, The Lego Group (TLG) has only re-released a handful — literally — of its sets.
• Lego sets appreciate. At the least, they keep their value. A good rule-of-thumb is that a set should fetch 2x RRP 1-2 years after it is retired.

But there are a few risks:

• Storage: Lego sets are huge! And they must be stored properly to keep the box in pristine condition.
• Illiquid: it takes time, measured in days or weeks, to find buyers.
• Shipping: shipping cost is significant. This means you are restricted to finding buyers from your own region.
• Uneven appreciation. Not every set is a winner.
• Oversupply: too many people are doing this now.
• TLG has also wised up. Popular sets are out longer — as long as 4 years. They are also more likely to be re-visited.
• Although TLG (almost) never re-release the same sets, they have revisited them after a number of years. This happens mostly with long-running licensed sets. This doesn't mean the old set loses its entire value, but it does lower the demand, so it could be harder to sell.

Take for example Hogwarts Castle from Harry Potter. It has been released 4 times:

It looks like you are sure to make a tidy profit no matter which set you pick. :lol:

An unexpected like

Vampyre Castle

Product Shot

949 pieces, RRP S$199.99 (US$99.99).

This is a pretty good set with a large number of play features. This was designed to be the top-of-the-line Monster Fighters set, until the Haunted House came along unexpectedly.

I normally wouldn't consider this due to its price, but I found it at 66% of S$ RRP. That's irresistable!

I don't see this as a haunted castle. I see it as a castle ruin, and that is just what I need for the rural part of my city landscape.

On a separate note, I just realized that Lego sets are ~US$10 per 100 pieces.