My Rambling Thoughts

We have not increased prices, we will do so now

News: Public car park rates to rise in first revision after 14 years

Date: 23 Jun 2016. Source: Today.

The parking rates at all public car parks are set to be raised following an ongoing government review of both short-term and season parking schemes.

The price revision will be the first in 14 years.

The Urban Redevelopment Authority (URA) told TODAY that the aim of the review is to "reduce the gap between the fees charged by private and public car parks" and appropriately price "public car park charges".

I'm a proponent of expensive parking. However, my guess is that the rates will increase by a "mere" 20%.

It is also time to have dynamic rates at EPS carparks:

%age30 min
<20%$0.50
<40%$0.75
<60%$1.00
<80%$1.50
>=80%$2.00

(The rate will be updated every minute.)

One set of rates will work everywhere: CBD and non-CBD, peak and off-peak, day and night. There is no artifical distinction, just based purely by demand.

How about season parking? IMO, it should have a bidding system, just like COE. It is to everyone's advantage to bid $1, but when supply exceeds demand, either none of them get it (just like COE today), or they will be be randomly allocated. Unlike COE, the unused bids cannot be brought forward.

For people who don't get the season pass, they have to pay the prevailing daily rate — $300/month today — hence everyone has an incentive to bid what they can afford to avoid this worst-case scenario.

In other words, a natural equilibrium-finding mechanism. I won't be Mr Popular. :lol:

Bidding for season parking won't work as well as COE, though, due to a natural cap of $300 for an unlimited season pass that allows parking at all HDB carparks. It will rise to be inline with the new rates, but it won't be much, say $360. What happens if everyone is willing to pay that amount and a carpark is still oversubscribed?

One solution is to set the daily rate based on the season parking rate if the latter is higher. If season parking costs $500/month, the daily rate is $16.67.

I definitely won't be Mr Popular.

Note that if the above rates are used, the daily rate should be $15 to $30, so the unlimited monthly season pass will be $450 to $900!

Game disrupter for Lego

The Cafe Corner costed US$139.99 new. It has been discontinued in 2009 and now costs well over US$1,500 for a MISB set.

Then this comes along:


Lepin 15002 Cafe Corner

Costs around RMB 240, or US$37.

What? Wow, just wow.

AFAIK, the Town Hall (Lepin 15003), the Brick Bank (Lepin 15001) and the Firehouse Headquarters (Lepin 16001) are also available. The latter two are current 2016 Lego sets.

Is it legal? I don't know. But it is sure to disrupt both TLG and the secondary market. The GBHQ costs US$349.99. The Lepin version costs just RMB 430 (US$66).

I am quite certain we will see the Green Grocer at some point. It costs US$149.99 new and is priced around US$1,000 now. The pent-up demand for it will be unbelievable. The secondary market may just crater.

Classy gel pens

The Pilot G-Tec-C4 pens are kind of hard to find in Singapore. It is not that popular, likely due to its price (~S$2.80), but pen connoisseurs will appreciate its quality.

The ink writes thin line without spreading, is of deep color, flows smoothly, drys instantly and resists smearing. The con is that the ball point tip is very fragile. Drop the pen on its tip and you will kiss the pen good-bye.

It is available on Amazon in pack of 10 assorted colors for US$20.05. The colors are: purple, pink, red, orange, brown, green, light blue, blue, navy blue and black. I've always wanted the full spectrum of colors. :-D

There is also a pack of the 5 more common colors: black, red, blue, green and purple.

Amazon UK sells a slightly different 10-pack, with yellow instead of navy blue. It looks prettier, but is less useful because yellow is too light on white paper.

Pay unfairly to be fair

News: Inside Google’s policy to 'pay unfairly' — why 2 people in the same role can earn dramatically different amounts

Date: 11 Apr 2015. Source: Business Insider.

In the years following its 2004 IPO, Google needed a way to continue its impressive growth without losing its best people to hot startups like Facebook and Twitter.

Laszlo Bock, who became the SVP of Google's People Operations in 2006, writes in his new book "Work Rules!" that he and Google's leadership spent years determining how to keep the retention rate of top talent as high as possible.

They decided on a counter-intuitive strategy: to "pay unfairly."

I'm surprised at two points he brought up:

  • we have many cases where people at more "junior" levels make far more than average performers at more "senior" levels.
  • even though Google prides itself on hiring only elite performers, its employees fall into a power law distribution (as opposed to a bell curve), in which the large majority of employees are "below average" and its few top performers bring up the average.

Point 1 is good for flat organizations. No resting on one's laurels. But I believe even for Google, this is done using stock awards. Regular pay still follows the hierarchical structure.

Point 2 is interesting. Either Google's standard is very high, or that their interviews are sufficiently "gamed" that they allow in a specific group of people... who are good at acing the interviews.

The BB by-election

May 72015 GE
Total25,72727,077
Rejected622545
Non-voters1,5351,593
PAP61.21%73.02%
SDP38.79%26.36%

At first glance, Dr Chee did well. But consider this: this is the first by-election PAP won in 37 years.

Truth be told, the West has always been supportive of PAP, so it would have been a tough fight. But it was made tougher by CSJ's poor reputation; mistakes that he made more than twenty years ago and continue to haunt him today.

Dr Chee made a fatal mistake in ousting Chiam See Tong from SDP in 1993. Now, he did not really do so — CST resigned when the SDP CEC (Central Executive Committee) did not want to censure against CSJ over his hunger strike, and he went to the press — but that is water under the bridge.

What was reported: CSJ ousted CST in a power-play. At that time — even now — people have great "affection" for CST because he was one of the few (if not the only one) opposition MPs. People assumed that he must be a leader and doing something right. And CSJ was hungry for his position. People bought it, hook, line and sinker. In the pre-Internet era, there was no way for CSJ to reach out to the public to give his side of the story.

In this by-election, the Chiams came out to attack Dr Chee, playing right into PAP's hand. Good job, Mrs Chiam.

Looking at CST's MP role, my assessment of him is Liu Biao. He just wants to guard that piece of land (Poton Pasir) that "belongs" to him and leave a "legend", it being his good name. And of course, he must be the leader, because he has the "mandate of the people".

PAP did not consider him a threat at all.

Cars are now more affordable!

MAS eases motor vehicle financing: maximum LTV (Loan-to-Value) is increased by 10% and tenure is increased by 2 years.

Previously, for a car with OMV up to $20k, one can loan up to 60% for 5 years. Now it is 70% for 7 years. Cars are now more affordable! :lol:

This is a brilliant move.

First, it helps banks secure more business. It is a given that loan restrictions are loosened in bad times, with the motive of helping financial institutions. If times are really bad, 100% loans will come back.

Second, it increases demand for cars, hence keeping COE in the $40k-ish region. This ensures a steady revenue and enforces the car-lite vision: if you want a car, you have to pay for it.

But the most important part of the announcement is that non-MAS regulated financial entities and licensed moneylenders have to comply with the restrictions as well. No more 80% financing loophole. (It does not stop sellers from over-valuing a car, though, but that is already against the law.)

How about financial prudence? Well, that is really up to oneself. If you determine affordability by monthly installment, that is already the wrong approach, especially if you are paying for the item over its effective life-span. That is the same as renting.

At the end of the day, the important question is, will COE still drop? I still think so. COE was in the $10-15k region ten years ago. How many of these owners can, or are willing, to pay an extra $30k for COE today?

However, I'm proven wrong every time. :lol: This shows that people are willing to pay an extra $250/month to drive. Broken down this way, it does not look like much, isn't it?

High-end LEGO sets

If we set an arbitrary cut-off at US$119.99, we can clearly see that there are more and more high-end LEGO sets in recent years.

(Mindstorms and Technic sets are excluded.)

2016

$399.9971040Disney World Cinderella Castle
$349.9975827Firehouse Headquarters
$269.9976052Batman Classic TV Series - Batcave
$249.9910253Big Ben
75098Assault on Hoth
$199.9921128The Village
$169.9910251Brick Bank
$119.9960124Volcano Exploration Base
70323Jestro's Volcano Lair
70595Ultra Stealth Raider
70596Samurai X Cave Chaos
75157Captain Rex's AT-TE

The list is up to mid-year only.

2015

$349.9976042SHIELD Helicarrier
$199.9910247Ferris Wheel
60098Heavy-Haul Train
70751Temple of Airjitzu
71016Kwik-E-Mart
75060Slave I
75095TIE Fighter
$189.9960097City Square
$169.9910246Detective's Office
$149.9975105Millennium Falcon
5004816Super Heroes DC Collection
$129.9941101Heartlake Grand Hotel
75106Imperial Assault Carrier
75919Indominus Rex Breakout
$119.9960080Spaceport
60095Deep Sea Exploration Vessel
70738Final Flight of Destiny's Bounty
75104Kylo Ren's Command Shuttle
76035Jokerland

2014

$299.9975059Sandcrawler
$249.9970810MetalBeard's Sea Cow
$199.9960052Cargo Train
71006The Simpsons House
76023The Tumbler
$159.9910243Parisian Restaurant
$149.9910241Maersk Line Triple-E
10244Fairground Mixer
60051High-Speed Passenger Train
$129.9960062Arctic Icebreaker
75055Imperial Star Destroyer
79018The Lonely Mountain
$119.9970146Flying Phoenix Fire Temple
70728Battle for Ninjago City
21118The Mine

2013

$319.9910234Sydney Opera House
$249.9910236Ewok Village
$199.9910237Tower of Orthanc
10240Red Five X-wing Starfighter
$159.9910937Batman: Arkham Asylum Breakout
21050Architecture Studio
$149.9910232Palace Cinema
$129.9910233Horizon Express
21017Imperial Hotel
$119.9960026Town Square
70010The Lion CHI Temple
75020Jabba's Sail Barge
75021Republic Gunship

2012

$199.9910224Town Hall
10227B-Wing Starfighter
$179.9910225R2-D2
10228Haunted House
$129.999474The Battle Of Helm's Deep
$119.994207City Garage
9450Epic Dragon Battle
9515Malevolence
9516Jabba's Palace
10223Kingdoms Joust

2011

$399.9910221Super Star Destroyer
$199.9921010Robie House
$159.993677Red Cargo Train
$149.9910217Diagon Alley
10218Pet Shop
$139.997965Millennium Falcon
$119.992507Fire Temple
4195Queen Anne's Revenge
7964Republic Frigate
10219Maersk Train
10220Volkswagen T1 Camper Van

2010

$259.9910212Imperial Shuttle
$239.9910214Tower Bridge
$179.997939Cargo Train
10210Imperial Flagship
$149.9910211Grand Emporium
$129.994842Hogwarts Castle
7938Passenger Train
$119.998098Clone Turbo Tank
10155Maersk Line Container Ship

2009

$249.9910195Republic Dropship with AT-OT Walker
10196Grand Carousel
$149.9910197Fire Brigade
10198Tantive IV
$130.009580WeDo Construction Set
$119.998039Venator-Class Republic Attack Cruiser

2008

$399.9910188Death Star
$299.9910189Taj Mahal
$199.99852293Castle Giant Chess Set
$149.9910184Town Plan
10185Green Grocer
$119.995609Deluxe Train Set
7676Republic Attack Gunship
10187Volkswagen Beetle

Inflation is one reason, but I think a bigger reason is that TLG is recognizing people are willing to pay a lot more for Lego, as evidenced by the after-market prices. The higher price-point brings with it larger and more detailed sets. And less money left to buy discontinued sets. Win-win for TLG!

Handful of Lego survivors

For some reason, TLG kept these sets longer than the normal 2-year shelf life.

DateSet #NamePiecesPrice (US$)
2013/310232Palace Cinema2,196$149.99
2013/910234Sydney Opera House2,989$319.99
2013/910236Ewok Village1,990$249.99
2011/510218Pet Shop2,032$149.99
2011/910220Volkswagen T1 Camper Van1,332$119.99
2010/1010214Tower Bridge4,287$239.99

(The Modular sets are expected.)

Woe to the ones who stocked up on Tower Bridge in 2012.

Potential sets that could follow the trend:

DateSet #NamePiecesPrice (US$)
2015/610247Ferris Wheel2,464$199.99
2015/575095TIE Fighter1,685$199.99
2015/571016Kwik-E-Mart2,179$199.99
2015/376042SHIELD Helicarrier2,996$349.99
2015/110246Detective's Office2,262$159.99
2014/875059Sandcrawler3,296$299.99
2014/810242Mini Cooper MK VII1,077$99.99
2014/610244Fairground Mixer1,746$149.99
2014/271006The Simpsons House2,523$199.99
2014/110243Parisian Restaurant2,469$159.99

My hypothesis is that, since 2012, TLG keeps an Exclusive set around if there is sufficient demand to justify its production. This is why the Town Hall was discontinued after a mere two years even though it was a Modular set.

TLG vs resellers

I gave my reasoning why Lego was not a good investment in April 2013:

  • There is now tremendous speculation for retired sets
  • The Lego Group (TLG) has wised up and extends shelf-life of popular sets
  • People have also wised up and try to get sets before they retire!
  • Newer sets are often better and more desirable

These have not slowed speculation one bit, but the landscape has changed.

There is less discount. Gone are the days of 50% off. 30% off is the max (except for poor selling sets) and these are rare.

Exclusive sets now sell at full-price all year round (since July 2013). These are usually the bigger sets that are not sold through mass-market retailers. Say goodbye to US$120 Modular buildings and hello US$170 (the new regular price). This reduces demand, but also spread the sales throughout the year.

Prices have increased by around 10%.

TLG has increased the max price-point to US$350 (except for UCS), allowing for more detailed and elaborate sets.

There has been an explosion of themes and sets. One is hardpressed to collect the current sets, much less the discontinued ones.

Most sets still have 2-years shelf life, but Modulars are now at least 4 years. As usual, poor-selling ones are ended early. Some bigger exclusive sets have a longer lifespan too. TLG now has the capability to do a small run periodically, keeping them in stock.

The bottom has not fallen out of the reseller market yet, but it could in the next 1-2 years.

Avengers Helicarrier


The Carrier

The Avengers SHIELD Helicarrier (76042) is an impressive set, although it better be, at US$349.99. It has 2,996 pieces.

It opens up to reveal the bridge.


Interior

To top it off:


Eagle Stand

Sadly, this is one set I will not own for three reasons:

  • too expensive
  • does not seem to be available on Amazon
  • low on my priority list

Headphone comparison

Freq RespImpedenceSensitivityTHDDriverPowerCable
Sennheiser HD 21919 - 21 kHz16 ohm108 dB0.5%45 mm?1.4 m
Sennheiser HD 43917 - 22.5 kHz32 ohm112 dB0.1%40 mm?1.4 m
Sonic Gear Earpump Studio Pro20 - 20 kHz32 ohm105+/-3 dB?50 mm20 mW1.2 m

The Sennheiser HD 219 was my first "expensive" headphone (at S$79). Finally, I was convinced good headphones make a difference. It seems to accentuate the treble.

The Sennheiser HD 439 seems pretty flat and unremarkable. I don't know if it requires burn-in. It can take a while to get used to, but I like its "unpunchy-ness" — to be able to listen to the music without any added "interpretation" from the headphone. :lol:

The Sonic Gear Earpump Studio Pro seems pretty good for its price (S$40). It sounds good enough for me. This convinced me that headphones don't have to cost a lot to be good. It is a little louder than the other two.

As a rule, I prefer over-the-ear headphones for their natural noise isolation. I also think it is easier to have better sound with bigger drivers. :lol:

A new headphone at 40% off!

I was browsing headphones on Amazon when I saw the Sennheiser HD 439 headphones at US$39.95! Wow, Challenger sells it for S$122.55 (after 5% off)!

It is a no-brainer at this price.

Except it was not all plain sailing to buy it. Amazon did not ship this overseas, so I had to go through a forwarder, 65daigou.

Next, Amazon charged shipping of US$6.75. Shipping is free to Singapore but not locally? Hmm...

The headphone weighed a mere 400 grams, but was 670 grams with the packaging. However, Amazon used an oversized box that had a volumetric weight of 2.3 kg. 65daigou rounded it to 2.5 kg and charged S$22.50 for it!

For US, 65daigou offers free repacking service, but you need to opt for it upfront, which I did not. I emailed them and they grudging did it as a one-time exception.

So, it was repacked to 440 grams (by throwing the box away) with volumetric weight of 740 grams. It was rounded to 810 grams (10% more), and costed S$7.98. I paid immediately.

Total cost: S$75.52 (S$67.54 [US$46.70] + S$7.98). That's 40% off local price!

Raspberry Pi SD Card Extreme

The search for the "best" SD card, after reading Jeff Geerling's microSD Card Benchmarks page.

S$RatedReadWriteRnd RRnd W
SanDisk Extreme 32 GB$329021.8721.99.422.36
SanDisk Ultra 32 GB$198021.6615.46.451.00
SanDisk Ultra 32 GB*$174820.797.95.981.57

*Results from Jeff Geerling's microSD Card Benchmarks page. I presume he tested this card.

All figures in MB/s. Ran on Raspberry Pi 3, which is severely I/O limited. It still does not take advantage of UHS SD cards (requires 1.8V for I/O), although it can be overclocked to 100 MHz to do so.

There is no doubt the SanDisk Extreme is one of the best card for Raspberry Pi 3, but how about the Ultra, at almost half the price?

Result: the new Ultra card trades random writes for faster throughput.

The SD cards are substantially cheaper on Amazon. The SanDisk Extreme 32 GB is US$16.29, or S$22.64 (at US$1-to-S$1.39).

Kill, or to be killed

Attack on Titan has a rather decent story, so I thought of buying the manga. It has two strikes against it: it is still in progress and it is pretty violent — although it is a far cry from Berserk.

I saw the current set of volumes 1 to 18 in Kinokuniya in JEM. To buy or not to buy? In the end, I decided not to buy because I thought I could look for them in Taiwan first. They should be readily available over there, right? :lol: Unfortunately, I did not come anywhere near a comic store in Taiwan.

Also, I pondered on it for so long that I had very little time to shop for a jacket for my trip, so I left empty-handed. You know how that went. It is the butterfly effect.

It turned out just as well, because in a few days time, I decided the manga was too humourless and violent, and found a lighter manga: Assassination Classroom.

The students of class 3-E have been tasked to kill their "alien" teacher, who has destroyed 75% of the Moon and has issued an ultimatum to destroy Earth in a year's time, unless he is killed first. The reward for doing so? 10 billion yen, or S$121 million! (They are saving Earth, after all.)

The manga just concluded on 16/3 with 180 chapters. Overall, I rate it a B+.

Only 17 volumes (up to chapter 150) have been released in Chinese. There should be a total of 20 volumes.

Each book is NT$100 (S$4.30), but Kinokuniya sells them at ~S$7.10 (65% more). 20% off = S$5.68 (not that I qualify for it). This is why people avoid buying from retail shops, then the shops are not able to survive — a vicious cycle. Costs in Singapore are simply too high.

I got 16 volumes, since one volume was out-of-stock. They weigh 2.8 kg. Books are heavy. I would have a hard time lugging them back from Taiwan! :-D

Why not Attack on Titan?

I have strict criteria when buying manga. One of the reasons is that I have limited shelf space.

First, it helps to be completed. If it is arc-based, then I will evaluate it up to the last completed arc. Mangas have a tendency to drag out for years, especially if the author loses interest or inspiration. Or it goes in a direction that I do not like, but I still feel compelled to complete it.

Second, I prefer lighter stories with humour. I cannot take too much of blood, gore and death. For fighting series, I'm often wary because fight scenes can drag on for too long. I want the story to progress. Attack on Titan has zero humour and is pretty violent. People die left and right, but as the story progresses, it is obvious some protagonists are exempted from this rule — the cliffhanger effect is reduced if you know they are "immortal".

This is one way authors paint themselves into a corner: the protagonists grow so strong that there are no challenges left. This is handled pretty well in Assassination Classroom, even though by midpoint the students have become world-class assassins and are virtually unstoppable. You have to read it to find out. ;-)

I like mysteries and puzzles. In Attack on Titan, the author slowly reveals the world to the readers. He has revealed much of how the walled cities and the Titans work, but the outer regions are still mysterious. I wonder how long more can the author stretch it — perhaps another 10 volumes or so? :lol:

Last of all is cost. If each volume is S$4.30, I won't mind buying it. But at S$7.10? I have to be more selective.

The most expensive city in the world

Earlier this month, this country was for the third year in a row ranked the most expensive city in the world for expats. While many say that with budgeting, living here is quite affordable, some have found that trying to emulate their life back home can get costly.

News: US couple learn to find ways to adjust to life here

Date: 27 Mar 2016. Source: ST

When corporate pilot Cyril Letzelter gets the chance to fly to the United States every three months, he stocks up on clothes for himself, his wife and his two children.

"Children's clothing at a Walmart in the US can cost US$3 (S$4.10) a piece but in Singapore, it's at least US$15," said the 48-year-old American, who is not surprised that Singapore has been found the most expensive city in the world for expatriates. He moved here in November 2013 with his wife Jennifer, a 35-year-old engineer.

THE LETZELTERS' AVERAGE MONTHLY EXPENSES

RENT$4,400
GROCERIES$2,400
PUBLIC TRANSPORT AND TAXIS$800
EATING OUT$500
EDUCATION$1,000
HELPER$1,000
UTILITIES$350
ENTERTAINMENT$200
TOTAL$10,650

*Also spends $15,000 a year for travel back to the US.

The takeaway

At first, I wondered why Straits Times ran this story. Then I realized they must be trying to show why being the most expensive city for expats does not mean the same for locals.

That is true, but the cost of living is still pretty high. And there is no easy way to lower it — there is no countryside where you can just live off the land. Let me present a hypothetical "localized" expenses for a family of three:

HOUSING*$600
GROCERIES$300
PUBLIC TRANSPORT AND TAXIS$150
EATING OUT$150
EDUCATION$50
HELPER$500
UTILITIES$100
ENTERTAINMENT$150
TOTAL$2,000

*This is in addition to using CPF for mortgage payment.

That is still a lot of money.

Anyway, I found it somewhat amusing that the couple balk at (i) buying a car because they find it too expensive, and (ii) that Mrs Letzelters felt compelled to work to supplement the family income. Assuming Mr Letzelters earns $24k/month, he is in the 95.9% percentile (2014 resident taxpayers). Ladies and Gentlemen, pause for a bit and let that sink in.

Note: updated localized expenses from feedback.